Game 12: at Dayton (13-1)
The Flyers return to UD Arena after winning at Toledo, their 2nd road win against the MAC this year, earlier winning a grinder at the JAR against Akron. Dayton has played their typical non-conference schedule, winning rather easily in their money games in front of the Flyer Faithful while sprinkling in a couple of neutral court and road tests. UD's best wins have come at home against Mercer and George Mason and in Chicago against Marquette. The Flyers' one loss was by 18 at Creighton, no picnic for any team. Coach Brian Gregory has arguably one of the deepest and most athletic teams in the country. Coach Gregory has gotten his players to buy into playing tough defense, rebounding with great intensity and performing with incredible effort.
Probable Starters:
London Warren, 6' 185 Jr. 5 pts, 4 ass. 41% FG, 64% FT. Part of UD's 2-headed monster at point guard, has improved his decision making and free throw shooting. No threat to shoot the ball from the outside, wants to drive and get to the line or dish. Has a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio. Has really quick hands, especially when guarding the ball.
Marcus Johnson, 6'3" 196 Jr. 12 pts, 3 reb. 48% FG, 42% 3PFG, 74% FT. More consistent than last year, especially shooting the ball from the outside. Very good at taking the ball to the basket. Can't let him catch and shoot in transition, make him take stand-still jumpers in the half-court.
Charles Little, 6'6" 247 So. 8 pts, 4 reb. 51% FG, 68% FT. At his best when catching the ball at the foul line and driving to the basket. He'll throw up a bad shot, run it down, and finish on the 2nd or 3rd try. No threat to shoot from the outside, but has also improved his foul shooting. Very good in the lane, possesses strong, athletic moves to the basket.
Chris Wright, 6'8" 226 So. 12 pts, 7 reb. 49% FG, 22% 3PFG, 64% FT. The human highlight reel who is starting to expand his game. His first step is quick and long. Can't play off him because his 1st step is that long and is always toward the basket, doesn't waste it by going to the side. His shooting is coming, but still inconsistent. One of the best offensive rebounders and finishers in transition in college hoops.
Kurt Huelsman, 6'10" 245 Jr. 4 pts, 5 reb. 38% FG, 64% FT. Battling himself and the fans getting on him for not playing better. Struggling to finish around the hoop, not going up strong enough. Still a very capable player in the post and plays solid defense inside.
Off the Bench
Rob Lowery, 6'2" 165 Jr. 7 pts, 3 ass. 36% FG, 29% 3PFG, 62% FT. The other point guard, JUCO transfer who is more of a scoring threat especially from the outside if he's hot. Also has a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio and is very good defensively at forcing turnovers.
Chris Johnson, 6'5" 176 Fr. 7 pts, 6 reb. 38% FG, 28% 3PFG, 71% FT. Lefty. Very long player who's getting better with each game. Hit the big shot against George Mason the other night. Looks to drive first, but is capable from the outside.
Luke Fabrizius, 6'9" 205 Fr. 4 pts. 33% FG, 34% 3PFG. Catch and shoot guy, capable of going off.
Devin Searcy, 6'10" 226 So. 3 pts, 3 reb. 62% FG, 73% FT. Starting to get more minutes with his defensive aggressiveness and growing offensive game. Now has the ability to dropstep and finish strong in addition to jumpers in the post.
Mickey Perry, 6'2" 197 Jr. 4 pts. 38% FG, 28% 3PFG. Came in with the reputation as a shooter, but still trying to prove it. Very inconsistent shot.
Stephen Thomas, 6'1" 170 So. 2 pts, 2 reb. 35% FG, 14% 3PFG, 89% FT. Doesn't play much, but when he does is very solid. Makes good decisions with the ball and has made some clutch free throws. Not as quick as Warren and Thomas at the point, but very solid.
Paul Williams, 6'4" 213 Fr. 2 pts. 21% FG, 15% 3PFG, 75% FT. Coming off an injury at the start of the year, still trying to find his game. Has the potential to be a mid-range threat scoring the ball.
Offensively, the Flyers want to push the pace, wear you down, and finish in transition. They go from defense to offense as quickly as anyone in college hoops. Their wings do a great job of getting out wide and running to the basket at good angles. In the half-court, they want to get the ball inside and they try to do it in a variety of ways. One is to dump the ball to the high post, fake a dribble handoff and bounce it in low to the opposite post who's cutting from the weak side elbow. If the post isn't open, or Huelsman does hand the ball off, there's a shooter circling back to the top for a jumper. Another way is to dribble over to one side and look for the weak side wing who will cut hard to the block. If he's not open, Johnson is usually coming off a double screen to the top for a jumper. Look for a lot of high pick and roll and quick ball reversal. All the Flyers are looking for is to get one of their athletes a step that will allow him to go baseline for a dunk. Once the shot goes up, 4 guys will crash the boards. UD doesn't score much off of their sets, forcing them to make their living on 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chance points.
Defensively, UD wants to make life miserable for 40 minutes. Teams are only scoring 56 points, shooting 35% from the field and 30% from 3 against UD. It all starts with ball pressure out top, forcing your offense to be run 35 feet from the basket. You might get open looks from deep early in the possession, but they can be a mirage if you're missing. Long misses lead to long rebounds and dunks at the other end. Don't count on getting many 2nd chances on the boards, UD is +8 on the glass this year. The Flyers will man and zone press full-court as well, which has led to them forcing 7 steals and 17 turnovers a game. There can't be any lazy passes thrown over the top because Wright, Little, or Johnson will go up, get it, run with it, and slam it.
To beat the Flyers, you have to run your offense and make shots, especially at UD Arena. UD is 14th nationally in defensive efficiency, 5th in effective FG percentage defense, 7th in 2 point field goal percentage defense, and 47th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Our point guards face an enormous challenge trying to run our offense. However, if we can be tough with the ball, we should get some back door opportunities with UD's tendency to overplay the passing lanes. We have to get a shot each time down the floor, we can't have more than 15 turnovers to have a chance. Defensively, we have to play smart defense, which means playing off and not fouling. UD can go 12 deep and win; we might be able to go 9 deep and have a chance. Staying out of foul trouble is key. We have to make them shoot jumpers and we have to keep them off the boards. Gang rebounding is a must, even for our point guards because Warren and Lowery are good rebounders for point guards. There's also the UD Arena "effect". To win at the Arena, you have to be ahead with 10 minutes to go because a UD run in the last 10 minutes, no matter how far behind they are, is guaranteed. It is important for us to play from ahead and to play aggressively if we happen to be ahead.
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