Game 16: at Bowling Green (8-8, 1-2)
*Thanks to dudis41 for his help on the BG scouting report!
The Falcons have begun league play 1-2, losing at Kent and at home to Akron Saturday after starting conference play beating Buffalo at Anderson Arena. BG has been sort of an enigma this year. Coach Louis Orr's team has played at a high level at times, staying competitive with Minnesota in The Barn, playing Ohio St. to the last minute in Columbus, handing Buffalo their only conference loss to this point, and playing Kent to a stalemate in the 1st half in the MAC Center. At other times, BG has played very poorly, losing at Savannah St. and Central Arkansas, getting blown out by Kent in the 2nd half, and the performance at home against the Zips where the Falcons only shot 28% from the floor. But as maddeningly inconsistent as BG has been this year, one thing is for certain. BG will give the Falcons their best shot and then some, which they always seem to do everytime Miami travels to the endless flatlands of northwestern Ohio.
Probable Starters
Joe Jakubowski, 6'2" 191 So. 10 pts, 4 ass, 3 reb. 47% FG, 36% 3PFG, 79% FT. The lefty has become one of the top point guards in the MAC. Isn't going to blow by you, but he's good with the ball, passes well, makes good decisions and is a very good shooter.
Darryl Clements, 6'4" 191 Sr. 10 pts, 4 reb, 3 ass. 43% FG, 37% 3PFG, 86% FT. Really improved his game since last year. Has become more consistent with his jumper, capable of hitting the 3 and has a mid-range game. Can still slash to the basket and score. Has also added a floater to his repetoire.
Brian Moten, 6'4" 175 Sr. 12 pts, 3 reb. 40% FG, 35% 3PFG, 73% FT. Deadly catch and shoot guy. Can also shot fake, dribble and pull up. Doesn't have great quickness, relies on his perimeter shooting to score.
Chris Knight, 6'7" 197 So. 7 pts, 5 reb. 42% FG, 50% 3PFG, 75% FT. Just getting back to 100% after football season and a shin injury. Does his work between the wing and the baseline, slashing to the basket or pulling up for mid-range jumpers. Runs the floor really well in transition and rebounds the ball well.
Otis Polk, 6'9" 285 Jr. 6 pts, 6 reb. 49% FG, 61% FT. Improved conditioning has resulted in more playing time for the big man. A space eater inside, does good work on the glass. Still likes to go to the baby hook in the post.
Off the Bench
Nate Miller, 6'4" 250 Sr. 11 pts, 6 reb. 45% FG, 21% 3PFG, 37% FT. A disappointing senior year that started by being suspended for the first 3 games of the year. Favorite move is to work off the pick and roll, left or right, seal the defender off with his body and finish at the basket. Has really struggled with his jumper this year, but you have to stay honest on it.
Erik Marschall, 6'7" 224 Jr. 6 pts, 4 reb. 42% FG, 30% 3PFG, 63% FT. A hybrid forward that can shoot from the outside and score in the post. Good passer out of the post as well.
Marc Larson, 6'9" 236 Jr. 4 pts, 3 reb. 36% FG, 83% FT. Lefty who still has no right hand. Is a good spot-up shooter, can't leave open on pick and pops.
Dee Brown, 6'2" 200 Fr. 3 pts. 43% FG, 44% 3PFG, 75% FT. Backup point guard who is a very good shooter. Not a great defender, doesn't break down on his defender very well.
Offensively, BG doesn't run anything too complicated. The Falcons run a lot of high pick and roll and create offense off of subsequent ball movement. One thing to be aware of is whatever side Jakubowski drives to, the strong side wing will go back door on the baseline. BG runs quite a bit of basic motion, looking to give their wings pick and roll opportunities. On the pick and roll and motion, you have to stay with the weak side wing, who's spotting up for a jump shot. BG will run some flex as well, looking to take advantage of their size, strength, and length at each position while simulatenously trying to create mismatches on the flex movement. BG relies on their players making plays, moving the ball and making open shots. They don't get to the foul line as often as they should, ranking in the bottom 30 nationally in free throw tries per field goal attempt. If you can limit their ball movement, you'll limit their scoring.
Defensively, the Falcons play quite a bit of 2-3 zone, trying to match up out of it. Coach Orr played under Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, so the 2-3 is the Syracuse model, which means the middle is the place to attack the zone. You have to be careful when you throw skip passes and dribble/kick because BG will get some hands on some balls. But, it's a pretty passive 2-3 zone with its main goal to prevent dribble penetration. It'll lure you into relying on 3 point shots, which is what BG wants. BG is only allowing opponents to shoot 39%, 32% from 3. Another worry about playing zone is giving up offensive rebounding opportunities. BG gives up some, but they rebound pretty well out of the zone. BG will play some man defense as well, but it's gotten them into some trouble. Jakubowski and Miller sometimes struggle staying in front of their men while Polk and Larson struggle against quick, mature post scorers. The Falcons also struggle in defensive transition. They run the floor ok, but are late in getting out to shooters on the wings.
The formula seems pretty simple against BG. Offensively, quick ball movement with frequent touches in the middle of the zone should lead to open shots. Defensively, stop dribble penetration, defend the pick and roll and force contested jump shots. But as we all know, BG is a different animal at home and they can't afford to drop another conference home game. We can't afford to relax after getting a big road win Saturday at Kent. We have to be ready for a dogfight that will probably go down to the final possession.
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