The Opener: Coaches vs. Cancer Classic 1st Round vs. Weber St.
Welcome to the first edition of the Scouting Report, your guide to Miami's opponents throughout the basketball season. Finally, it's time to throw it up and play some ball and first up for Miami is the Weber State Wildcats. Weber St. is coming off of a 16-14 season, a little disappointing after winning the Big Sky regular season and conference tournament titles in 2007. Coach Randy Rahe starts his 3rd year without his leading scorer and rebounder from last year, plus a number of Division 1 rookies who are expected to contribute right away. The Wildcats are picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Sky, but this is a program that isn't satisfied with just being medicore. During its 46 year membership in the Big Sky, Weber St. has won 17 conference titles. The Wildcats expect to win.
Probable Starters:
Kellen McCoy, 5'6" 180 Sr. Last year averaged 9 points and 3 boards while shooting 45% from the field, 40% from 3 and 77% from the foul line. McCoy moves from the backup point guard role to the starter where he's expected to be the catalyst for the offense. He is prone to turning the ball over, only had a 1:1 assist/turnover ratio last year, which for a point guard is not good. Have to make him play faster than he wants and get him to pound the ball more than he wants, make him become careless with the ball.
Mark Hansen, 6'4" 185 Jr. JUCO transfer is a gunner. In their last exhibition, Hansen took 8 shots from the field, all from deep. Have to play him tight and keep a hand in his face, make him put it on the floor.
Daviin Davis, 6'4" 190 Sr. Honorable Mention All-Big Sky last year. Averaged 9 points and 3 boards while shooting 47% from the floor and 74% from the line. He's trying to expand his game beyond the 3 point line, making 3/4 in the last exhibition, but only shot 20% from the shorter line last year. A drive-first player, he's also good at using penetration to finding the open man.
Kyle Bullinger, 6'6" 210 Fr. Redshirted last year due to an injury, big things are expected from this young man. As a senior in high school, averaged 28 points and 12 boards. All-around player, can shoot it from deep and put it on the floor and take it to the basket. He can post up smaller 4s and take bigger 4s outside.
Steve Panos, 6'8" 240 Jr. Averaged 7 points and 3 boards last year while shooting 55% from the floor and 64% from the line. Can step out and hit the 12-footer. Slow footed and not very physical on defense (at least on the little tape I saw). I like Dierkers on this matchup.
Off the bench:
Damian Lillard, 6'2" 180 Fr. True freshman will be the backup point guard. Regarded as one of the top 100 guards last year in the country by several recruiting services, Lillard can drive, dish, and shoot it. He will play a lot if he plays like he did during the exhibition season.
Marcus Carson, 6'4" 185" Jr. JUCO transfer, expected to eventually be a double/double guy.
Trevor Morris, 6'9" 230 So. 4 points and 2 boards off the bench last year, shooting 64% from the floor, 75% from the line.
Darin Mahoney, 6'8" 220 Fr. Will mainly be counted on for defensive rebounding and to block shots.
When I've watched Weber St. in the past, they're at their best when they're playing their finesse offensive game, making shots inside and outside while playing solid position defense. When they made the NCAAs two years ago, David Patten was conference player of the year. He didn't overwhelm you with his athleticism or height, he knew how to play and he could make shots. This bunch appears to be a little more athletic and has a number of guys who can make shots, but they're lacking other qualities. Even though they led the Big Sky in scoring defense, the Wildcats were in the bottom fifth in defending the 3 and one of the worst 25 teams in assists per field goals made, which is a metric that can be used to gauge team defense. The little tape I've seen shows slow rotations on defense, so if we can reverse the ball, drive and dish, get the defense moving, we should be able to have some success offensively. As many shotmakers as the Wildcats have, last year they were in the bottom third of Division 1 in offensive efficiency mainly due to the number of turnovers the Wildcats had. With a number of new ballhandlers entering the rotation, turnovers could be a problem for Weber St.
If Miami plays up to their capability, they should win. The key will be playing Miami defense, which is ball pressure, contesting shots, and team rebounding. Miami would like to run more and get the transition game going, but when you're focused on transition, sometimes you forget to buckle down and play defense for 35 seconds. Against a team that can make shots, if you're not commited to playing defense for the entire possession, you'll be grabbing the ball out of the net all night long. At the other end, Miami has to make Weber St. play defense. Ball reversal, dribble penetration, and crash the offensive glass. If it becomes a dragged out, half-court affair, I believe Weber St. will falter, I don't think they can grind it out for 40 minutes.
But remember, it's the 1st game of the year. Anything can happen as both teams are still trying to find out who they are and what they have.
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