Miami (13-12) at Valparaiso (15-12)
BracketBuster Saturday brings a road trip to the edge of Chicagoland and Valparaiso at the ARC. It's been a tale of two halves regarding Valpo's season. The Crusaders started 10-1 with wins over Western Michigan and Wright St. in the Nutter Center while being competitive at Wisconsin. Since then, Valpo has lost 11 of their last 16, falling to 6-9 in the Horizon League, fighting for a 1st round conference tournament home game. The Crusaders endured a tough 3 game stretch in which they lost in the final minutes, including a heart-wrenching home loss to Butler after Valpo had led most of the game. Coach Homer Drew has his kind of team, skilled offensively with some size who play hard at both ends of the floor.
Projected Starters:
G Brandon McPherson, 6'1 Jr. 10 pts, 2 ass. 49% FG, 44% 3PFG, 78% FT. Far and away Valpo's best guard. Can score a variety of ways. Surprisingly only plays 24 minutes a game because Valpo is significantly better with him on the floor because he can change the pace of the game offensively and the way he pressures the ball defensively. In transition, he likes to pull up for the 3 when leading the break.
G Jake Diebler, 6'3 Jr. 5 pts, 3 reb. 36% FG, 38% 3PFG, 75% FT. Jon Diebler's big brother, Jake is more of a glue guy than a big-time scorer, but with everyone else, he can shoot the 3. His low shot release sometimes gets him into trouble. Only averages 3 boards a game, but he does a good job of helping out on the glass. Plays extremely hard defensively.
F Shawn Huff, 6'7 Sr. 12 pts, 5 reb. 46% FG, 45% 3PFG, 87% FT. Not sure he's 6'7, but a very strong, athletic player. He can put it on the floor and take you inside. He's able to post up smaller guys and score effectively. And he's strong enough to drive hard, step back and hit the perimeter shot. Very good at finishing around the basket.
F Samuel Haanpaa, 6'8 So. 10 pts, 3 reb. 44% FG, 43% 3PFG, 83% FT. Think a slower, less athletic version of Keith Van Horn and Hanno Mottola. He and Huff are from Finland and while Huff has a very American game, Haanpaa is the prototypical European player. Clever with the ball, shoots it well, good at shooting on the move. But he needs time to get his shot off and isn't a strong defender or rebounder. May not start because he missed the Loyola game with an illness
C Urule Igbavoba, 6'9 Jr. 10 pts, 7 reb. 53% FG, 61% FT. Athletic, plays with a lot of energy, very agile for a big man. To make things even more awkward, he's a lefty. As required by Valpo's offense, he's a very good passer from the high post. He can drive from the elbow to the basket and finish under control. He likes to spin left around the basket. He can also hit a pull-up jumper.
Off the Bench:
G Jarryd Loyd, 6' Sr. 12 pts, 4 ass, 3 reb. 45% FG, 42% 3PFG, 62% FT. The 6th man who is basically a 6th starter. He and McPherson in the backcourt together are a lethal combination. Good slasher, likes to go to the crossover dribble, which is also good. Can hit the 3 and create other shots for himself. Hit a lot of clutch shots in the Butler game.
C Bryan Bouchie, 6'11 Fr. 7 pts, 3 reb. 50% FG, 27% 3PFG, 49% FT. Good post player for a freshman. Stronger than Igbavoba, he can also finish with his left hand and possess a spin move on the block. You have to honor his 3 point shot, he can hit it.
G Howard Little, 6'4 Fr. 3 pts, 2 reb. 33% FG, 22% 3PFG, 65% FT. Guard of the future. Can't let him catch the ball with space behind the 3 point line, he'll drain it. Have to make him put it on the floor.
G/F Michael Rogers, 6'6 Fr. 2 pts, 2 reb. 43% FG, 29% 3PFG, 40% FT.
Valpo has good shooters, so they look to get good perimeter shots with a lot of movement without the ball. They run a lot of different sets, but there are a couple that they will run repeatedly. Their post players are good passers, so they'll pop out and catch the first pass at the high post. They'll look for a wing coming off the point guard's screen where he'll get a shot or reverse the ball to the other wing coming from the high post who down screened for him. They also run a well-designed player where they'll dribble handoff and send one of their bigs to the block off a double screen, which is sometimes open. But what they're really looking for is the wing, one of the screeners in the double screener, getting screened by the other screener for a jump shot. If Valpo wants to get the ball inside, they'll put everyone on one side of the floor and throw the lob over the top. Or, they'll go high pick and roll, dribble over to the side and the screener rolls all the way to the block. And they'll run a little triangle action to work it inside-out either for a basket inside or a kick-out 3. Valpo averages 25 made field goals a game, 15 are assisted. That shows you how well they move the ball.
Defensively, Valpo will put a lot of ball pressure on the point guard. This makes it harder for the other team to initiate their offense, but also masks their defensive deficiencies. They have a lot of athleticism, but they're not overly quick and don't anticipate passes well, so they don't create a lot of turnovers. They only force 13 turnovers a game. Plus, they're not a particularly good rebounding team, so ball pressure is applied to try and force the worst shot possible. When the defense breaks down, everyone sucks into the lane hard to help, leaving people wide open on the perimeter to shoot the ball. Butler did this throughout the 2nd half and Valpo kept getting burned by it. Another way they'll look to make things hard for the opponent's offense is by playing a token 2-2-1 3/4 court press, which is meant to slow the other team's progress up the floor, not necessarily steal the ball.
Valpo wants a pretty game. They want to show their ability to score and shoot the ball while playing solid defense. If they don't shoot the ball well, it puts a lot of pressure on their defense, which isn't good enough to win games by itself. Valpo plays 7 guys for the most part, so depth shouldn't be an issue. Offensively, dribble penetration and ball movement for open shots has to be the main focus. We should've done more of this the other night. If we penetrate and kick, we should get a lot of open looks. Defensively, we have to communicate better with screens, this lost us the game the other night. We have to be much sharper defensively on and away from the ball. If we're not, Valpo will put on a shooting clinic. Valpo is 21st nationally in shooting the 3 (40%)
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