Miami (7-9, 1-3) at Bowling Green (7-9, 2-2)
The Falcons are returning home after getting taken behind the woodshed at the JAR. BG lost 80-44, so you'll know they'll be ready to go Wed. night. BG has won their 2 home conference games vs. OU and Buffalo and have lost at Kent in addition to the Akron loss. In non-conference play, BG's best wins came in the season-opening tournament where they beat Belmont and the depleted Bearcats. BG was competitive against Illinois St. and Indiana St., who are in the top half of the Valley. Coach Louis Orr has done a solid job in his 1st year. His job got tougher late last month when he lost Ryne Hamblet to grades. BG is 3-5 without arguably their best all-around player. Anderson Arena has been kryptonite to Miami and will pose a stiff challenge yet again, especially for a team trying to sustain the positive momentum gained from Sunday's home win.
Projected Starters:
G Joe Jakubowski, 6'2 Fr. 6 pts, 3 reb, 3 ass, 42% FG, 33% 3PFG, 54% FT. Best pure ballhandler on the team in my opinion. BG is a better team with him at the point. Being left-handed makes him a little more awkward to guard. He needs a little time to get his feet set shooting the ball, but when he does, he can knock the deep ball down. He doesn't look like much of a player, but he can play.
G Darryl Clements, 6'4 Jr. 8 pts, 3 reb, 44% FG, 27% 3PFG, 83% FT. Combo guard who's definitely more comfortable playing shooting guard than the point. Not a great outside shooter, he'd much rather slash to the basket. Very good defender.
F Nate Miller, 6'4 Jr. 13 pts, 6 reb, 3 ass. 41% FG, 22% 3PFG, 58% FT. The guard version of Tim Pollitz. An undersized forward in terms of height, he is incredibly strong and is tough to stop in a 1-on-1 situation. His best move is a strong dribble into the lane where he spins and finishes at the basket. For his size (225 pounds), he is very quick. Not much of an outside threat, he's looking to come off the pick and roll and go to the hole.
F Chris Knight, 6'7 Fr. 12 pts, 7 reb. 46% FG, 31% 3PFG, 60% FT. Really impressed with this kid, he has the potential to be very good. He can put it on the floor like a guard and get to the basket. He's got a little mid-range game and can shoot the 3. He's very aggressive going to the basket and for a freshman, does a good job of playing under control. When you watch him play, the word "smooth" comes to mind, except when he's at the foul line where he can get a little twitchy.
C Marc Larson, 6'9 So. 6 pts, 3 reb. 52% FG, 76% FT. He's got some height and that's really about it to be honest. He's got a ways to go to develop, he's still awkward and not very athletic. 3 rebounds isn't very good for a center. He can be easily dominated underneath, doesn't move well. Not much of a post game, most of his points are garbage points.
Off the Bench:
G/F Brian Moten, 6'4 Jr. 6 pts, 2 reb. 46% FG, 41% 3PFG, 75% FT. Instant offense off the bench, can't be left open because he can get his shot off quickly. Defensively, he's pretty good. He's long, making it tough to shoot over him.
F Otis Polk, 6'9 So. 6 pts, 5 reb. 50% FG, 53% FT. Best post player on the team, uses his weight to establish position and score on the block. Even though he's worked on his conditioning, it's still not best for him to play extended minutes.
G Ryan Sims, 6'1 So. 2 pts, 1 reb. 31% FG, 16% 3PFG, 63% FT. Doesn't look comfortable on the floor, tends to make poor decisions. Has the potential to be a good shooter.
Offensively, it's night and day for BG. In recent years, it's been nothing but the motion offense. Now, BG runs more of an NBA offense. The Falcons will spread the floor and run a lot of pick and roll. They want to keep the ball in the hands of Miller and Knight as much as possible. There isn't a lot of off the ball movement, so there will be a lot of 1-on-1 play. BG will run crosses with their wings on the break to try and free them up. They also like to run a little motion if they start with a high pick and roll, but that's about all the movement they'll do. BG wants to drive the ball to the basket and will try and do so relentlessly. One, that's their strength, and two, they only shoot 28% from 3, so if they're forced to take 3s, that's not a good sign for them. Also, look for a lot of dribble weave to get mismatches for Miller and Wright, again geared around them going 1-on-1.
Defensively, BG has quickness and length on the perimeter, making it tough to drive the ball 1-on-1 and/or shoot over them. Teams are shooting 41% against the Falcons, only 30% from 3. They struggle a little bit defending the pick and roll because they don't always communicate well. Their biggest defensive deficiency is rebounding. They rely on their wings to rebound quite a bit because of their lack of size and athleticism in the post.
I think this game will come down to the backcourt who plays the best. When BG's played well it's because their guards have played well. BG will have to hope for their usual home cooking where they play freer, move the ball more and find a good offensive groove. If they hit their average of 16 turnovers a game, I like our chances. We have to move the ball and crash the glass where we might be able to get some cheapies. Defensively, we have to guard against dribble-drive and be content to contest 3s. Make BG hit some 3s before coming out and challenging them more defensively.
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